Earlier Today, the polling service Rasmussen Reports came out with new polling data comparing a generic republican to a generic democrat. Although initially the results are unsurprising (Republicans are up 9 points over Democrats), further calculation and comparison turns out to reveal more interesting data. Neil Stevens of Red State Blog calculated the swing form democrat to Republican from last election, and based on these numbers (when third party victories are factored out) it is an astronomically high 22 point swing towards the Republican side from 2008. This hypothetically translates into a 60 House Seat gain for republicans this November; but as the author notes, a lot can still happen between now and then.
1. How much stock do you put in polls such as this one when predicting electoral outcomes?
2. Do you agree with the conclusions the article's author drew from the data?